Diagnose
Baseline Assessment
The Baseline Assessment establishes the mathematical performance boundaries of a pathway from basic activity data and a pathway diagram. We produce two calculated baselines: a zero policy baseline and a major policy baseline.
Where the constraint is capacity, the assessment states what sustainable performance is achievable at current resource levels, and how much would be required to reach the target. Where something else is constraining performance, such as policy interactions, this is where structural infeasibility first becomes visible.
What this delivers
Two mathematical performance boundaries
The Zero Policy Baseline establishes the pure capacity-driven performance the pathway can sustainably achieve: what current capacity allows with no policy rules applied. The Major Policy Baseline captures the major stage, split, priority, and loop rules that govern the pathway, extracted from national rules and local documents and mapped to activity data.
A direct answer to the capacity question
Using both baselines, sustainable performance is calculated for current capacity and for unconstrained capacity. Together the baselines bracket the pathway's potential and provide clear evidence of whether the constraint is capacity or something else. This is where non-capacity constraints first become visible, preventing resource commitment to a recovery programme that cannot resolve them.
A Theory of Constraints derived capacity plan
Where the pathway has a capacity constraint, the assessment states how much capacity, at precisely which nodes (bottlenecks), is required to sustainably deliver the target. This is an investment-grade capacity and demand assessment. Where the constraint is not capacity, the assessment identifies the nature of the problem and the basis for resolution.
A System Reliability Rating
Derived from the two baselines, the assessment produces a System Reliability Rating, expressed as the percentage probability that the pathway will meet its target every month under its current configuration. The rating confirms whether the pathway can sustainably deliver the target. Where a "Policy Knot" is indicated, a System Reliability Rating requires the full logic mapping of undocumented rules from an Observation Study; the rating feeds into that work to give a quantified reading of pathway health.
Board-ready deliverables
A report, an interactive model output, and a briefing. Completed from activity data and a pathway diagram, typically within four weeks. The output is a verdict and a basis for decision, not a list of recommendations.
How it works
The assessment takes two inputs: activity data for the pathway and a pathway diagram sufficient to identify nodes and route probabilities. From these, we construct two mathematical models using queueing theory, which account for variation in arrival and processing patterns, not just average flow.
The Zero Policy Baseline is constructed first. It establishes what the pathway can sustainably deliver at current capacity with no policy constraints applied: the theoretical ceiling. The Major Policy Baseline is then constructed by extracting the major governing rules from pathway documents: stage sequences, split ratios, priority orderings, and recirculation logic. These rules are validated against the activity data and applied to the model. The result is the floor: the worst sustainable performance the pathway produces under its documented hard rules.
To confirm whether capacity is the binding constraint, capacity is added incrementally in the model until utilisation falls to one per cent. If performance reaches the target under those conditions, capacity resolves the problem and the assessment identifies exactly how much and where. If it does not, the constraint lies elsewhere and the assessment identifies the nature of the problem and the basis for resolution.
More granular policies and rules beyond those in the Major Policy Baseline typically provide some flexibility relative to the hard floor, so the actual feasible performance space is usually larger than the worst case indicates. An Observation Study establishes that logic where it is material to the findings.
Elements of Discrete Event Simulation supplement the queueing theory models where required. The assessment is completed without disrupting operational teams. Findings are delivered as a written report, an interactive model, and a briefing.