Policy
System-Wide Policy Impact Assessment
Structural policy changes at ICB and ICS level, including acute unit consolidation, diagnostic centralisation, and virtual ward expansion, displace risk rather than remove it, creating demand pressure and flow constraints in adjacent trusts that no standard analysis will identify. Without a logic twin of the regional system, impact assessments are narrative rather than quantitative, and the consequences they miss typically surface 12 to 18 months after implementation.
What this delivers
A logic twin of the regional flow network
A validated computational model of patient movement, service capacity, and policy interactions across trust and service boundaries within the ICB or ICS footprint. Built from real flow and activity data, validated against historical performance before scenario modelling begins.
Structural infeasibility assessment per scenario
For each policy scenario modelled (consolidation, diversion, expansion, reconfiguration), a formal verdict on whether the scenario creates structural infeasibility in any part of the regional system. The assessment is quantitative, not qualitative: it states which services become infeasible, under what demand conditions, and by how much.
Cross-boundary impact analysis
Identification of which adjacent trusts and services absorb displaced demand or risk under each scenario, and whether that displacement creates infeasibility downstream. The analysis follows patient flow across organisational boundaries rather than stopping at trust edges.
Evidence portfolio for approval and assurance
Full documentation of the regional logic twin, scenario assessments, and cross-boundary impact analysis. Formatted for ICB board approval, NHS England submission, and public-facing assurance. Includes the quantitative evidence base required to defend structural decisions against scrutiny.
How it works
We begin with a Baseline: extracting patient flow, activity, and demand data from across the ICB or ICS footprint, including multiple trusts, community services, and primary care interfaces. On-site scoping maps the informal routing conventions, escalation arrangements, and diversion practices that govern actual patient movement across the system, alongside the documented policy framework.
From the baseline we build the logic twin of the regional flow network: a validated computational model of patient movement, service capacity, and policy interactions across trust and service boundaries. The logic twin is validated against observed system-wide flow before scenario modelling begins. Where the model does not reproduce historical patterns across the footprint, we investigate before proceeding.
Against the validated logic twin we model each policy scenario in turn. For each scenario we identify which services become structurally infeasible, which carry increased demand, and which adjacent trusts absorb displaced risk. The output is a quantitative comparison of scenarios, with a formal structural infeasibility verdict for each, and a full evidence portfolio for ICB and NHS England submission.